In order to determine whether a wager is overvalued or undervalued, those seeking expected value, or +EV, take into account the lines (and, by extension, probability) oddsmakers assign to each game, frequently as early as possible.įinding value early in the week is a habit among the top NFL bettors. In an effort to predict the victors of the day, novice sports bettors frequently rush through the board at the last minute or check NFL odds on Sunday morning. Sharp gamblers have a distinct advantage over most other gamblers and one of the few advantages they may take against a sportsbook by weighing bets according to the predicted value. Why Does Expected Value Matter to Sports Bettors?

The bettor would assign a negative expected value if they thought the team had a chance of winning that was lower than 50%. If a book, for instance, gives the Seahawks a +100 line versus the Patriots, that corresponds to a 50% chance of winning or a coin flip.Ī bettor would assign a positive expected value (+EV) if they think the Seahawks genuinely have a better than 50% chance of winning this game.

In contrast, a -190 favorite has a higher chance of winning than a -120 favorite.īettors can translate these line numbers into an implied probability. Thus, a +100 underdog has a higher chance of winning than a +240 underdog (according to the book). sportsbooks only utilize these odds.Īccording to this system, the line number rises when the possibility of winning is low and falls when the likelihood of winning is high. American odds are those that provide positive numbers (like +100, +222, etc.) to the underdog and negative numbers (like -120, -155, etc.) to the favorite. The simplest definition of anticipated value in sports betting is a method of calculating the difference in likelihood between a bettor’s expectations and those of the sportsbook.īetting lines, which are assigned by oddsmakers to all moneylines, point spreads, totals, and other bet types, are visible to bettors as their probability estimates. What Expected Value Is There In Sports Betting? What a Bet with Positive Expected Value Looks Like.

Why Does Expected Value Matter to Sports Bettors?.

What Expected Value Is There In Sports Betting?.

What does ev mean in gambling